“The growth of cities will be the single largest influence on development in the 21st century.”
– United Nations
Urbanization is a phenomenon that is gaining momentum across the world, today. The trend, which is fueled by the twin factors of urban population growth and migration from rural to urban areas, however, is not bad and in fact, often benefits the economic growth of cities and its surrounding areas. But on the flip side, it poses huge challenges as it exposes poor infrastructure facilities of urban centers which have not kept up with the rise in urbanization and lack of effective policy planning on part of the governments, both at the local and at the central level.
In 1800, only 2 per cent of the world’s population lived in urban areas, although the history of cities is as old as the 3rd millennium B.C., according to the United Nations. The number now has grown manifold to 3 billions and, in 2007, it crossed another milestone: more than half of the world’s population is urban. And if the pace of urbanization (the World Bank defines urbanization as a process of relative growth in a country’s urban population accompanied by an even faster increase in the economic, political, and cultural importance of cities relative to rural areas) continues its momentum, by 2050, nearly 2/3rd of us would be living in cities.
According to estimates by the United Nations, by 2008, more than half of the world’s current 6.7 billion population will live in cities; by 2030, the urban population will have risen to 5 billion, i.e., 60 per cent of the world’s total population. Further, in 2005, China, India and the US had the largest number of urban dwellers in the world.
What is causing the sudden burst in urban population? Migration from rural areas to urban centers and growing population are the two major factors behind rapid urbanization witnessed across the globe, including India. In fact, the trend is going to be stronger in India, in particular, and the whole of Asia-Pacific, in general, if the forecasters are to be believed. The process of rural migration has accelerated in recent times with agriculture’s diminishing role in employment generation and growing economic activities in cities.
Contrary to common perception, urbanization is not a side effect of economic growth; rather, it is an integral part of the process, suggests a World Bank report. According to it, India’s urban areas make a major contribution to the country’s economy. For instance, though less than 1/3rd of India’s people live in urban areas, they account for over 2/3rd of the country’s GDP and 90% of the government revenues. However, the rising trend of urbanization poses a significant challenge to the country’s cities.
While the cities have been expanding to catch up with the spurt in migration and also population, it has not been matched with the creation of basic amenities like housing, water, transportation and sanitation among others. Lack of availability of shelter has, in fact, emerged as the biggest issue facing the Indian cities, today. According to the WB, slums now account for 1/4 of all urban housing; in Mumbai, which has the distinction of having Asia’s biggest slum, more than half the population live in slums.
Rapid urbanization also means increased pressure on the cities’ already choking infrastructure like roads, sanitation, water, healthcare etc. It is no secret that our cities have not been able to cope with the sudden burst in urbanization, a trend which has been gaining momentum. Major metropolises like Mumbai and Delhi have been struggling to provide basic services to their denizens. Jammed roads, rising levels of pollution, lack of affordable housing, erratic power supply, lack of access to drinking water etc. have been the nagging issues facing these mega cities in-the-making. Offering effective and affordable citizen services is another major challenge before the government and policymakers. Added to the list of woes is the issue of rising urban poverty.
Cities lack the vision and proper policy initiatives and also funds to effectively deal with the challenges arising out of rapid urbanization. However, given that the trend of urbanization is irreversible, there needs to be concerted efforts on the part of the policymakers and urban planners to come out with better solutions.
Defining Urbanization
In today’s context, the definition of an urban area differs from region to region and from country to country. However, on an average, demographers define that cities are large, densely populated, built-up areas. However, the most accepted criterion of urbanization is typically population size, population density, and the extent of the built-up area. For instance, in the US, census regard urban areas as those with at least 2,500 people, but in the UK the figure is 1,000. Accordingly, the definition of an urban area changes from country to country and there are no uniform standards.
Most commonly, a city is generally defined as a political unit organized and governed by an administrative body. This unit is a symbol of defining a city or an urban area by the number of residents. According to the United Nations, an urban area contains residents of over 20,000, and a city contains more than 100,000. The US defines an urbanized area as a city and surrounding area with a minimum population of 50,000. A metropolitan area contains both urban and rural area, which is socially and economically integrated with a particular city. Megacities contain over 5 million inhabitants and there were 41 megacities in the year 2000 and the number is expected to grow expected to grow as population increases in the next few decades. By 2015, the figure may go up to 50 megacities and 23 of these are expected to have over 10 million people.
There are many reasons for the growth in numbers of cities. The large pool of urban habitants benefits the agglomeration or clustering, of related activities, which saves time and money. Moreover, cities are linked to other cities by transport network to access goods and services.
The Process of Urbanization
The practice of urbanization occurred differently in developing and developed countries and historically many of these countries were former colonies. It happened due to the population growth rates and countries with highest growth rates have the largest urban areas. The developing counties are characterized by poor, rapid migration from rural to urban area and having significantly less technology than the developed world. For instance, in the US migration from rural to urban was facilitated by large-scale industrialization to fulfill labor requirements. In the developing countries, urban migration takes place without any industrialization and employment opportunities for the masses leading to a great deal of pressure on urban areas. That is why many cities in poor countries contain large unemployed people living in poverty and in unsanitary squatter settlements.
Today, the degree of urbanization varies across the globe and this in general reflects the wealth of individual countries. The developed and industrialized nations tend to be the most highly urbanized.
In 20th century, one of the remarkable characteristics of urban growth has been the rapid increase of small cities to very big ones. During the 18th century, there was hardly any city with more than a million inhabitants. However, after it the number of cities has risen steadily and in the 19th century there were at least 13 cities with more than a million inhabitants, and by 1950 the number had grown to 68. Today, there are around 250 cities of more than a million habitants and many of these are in Asia, particularly in India and China.
Factors Driving Urbanization
A World Bank report suggests contrary to common perception. Urbanization is not a side effect of economic growth; rather, it is an integral part of the process. It further says that India’s urban areas make a major contribution to the country’s economy. For instance, though less than 1/3rd of India’s people live in urban areas, they account for over 2/3rd of the country’s GDP and 90% of the government revenues. However, the rising trend of urbanization poses significant challenge to the country’s cities.
Urbanization in India – On the Rise
According to a report by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), India is getting urbanized at a faster rate than the rest of the world and, by 2030, 40.7% of the country’s population will be living in urban areas. With growing job opportunities and increasing salaries, states like Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra are witnessing rapid urbanization against the least urbanized states like Bihar and Assam. UNFPA opposes the idea that rural migration is driving urbanization in India. It says that urbanization is happening more due to the natural rate of population growth than increased migration. The report says that among the factors that are adding to rapid urbanization is natural increase in the urban area, which is contributing 61% while 22% to, rural to urban migration and another 17% to reclassification of rural areas as urban. To its credit, India’s urban population is the second largest in the world and is higher than the total urban population of US and Russia put together, excluding China. In terms of population, Mumbai ranks fifth and Delhi is the sixth largest and Kolkata is the 12th among the world’s top ten cities.
The Challenges
The rapid urbanization is creating numerous slums in the industrializing world, around 900 million slum inhabitants the world over, whose surface is splattered with fetid fluids and littered with plastic bags. The situation is worst especially in Africa, Latin America, Asia and in many parts of the Middle East. According to a study done by the United Nations Human Settlements Program (UN-Habitat) titled “The Challenge of Slums: Global Report on Human Settlements” urban slums are growing faster than expected. It says “With the locus of global poverty shifting rapidly from rural areas to cities, almost one sixth of the world’s population is already living in unhealthy areas, more often than not without water, sanitation or security.” The report warns that if no concerted action is taken, the number of slum-dwellers worldwide will rise to two billion over the next thirty years.
Despite these concerns, the number of people moving to cities is growing rapidly which is resulting in the huge increase in the world’s urban and urban slum populations. This is a crisis of unprecedented magnitude. The rapidly growing cities are caught in a deep morass of haphazard growth and unplanned development of infrastructure making these cities unable to cope with the increasing burden of population. The people who are living in slum are yet to be provided with shelter, employment along with other urban services. “The stretched capacity of most urban economies in developing countries is unable to meet more than a fraction of these needs,” says Naison Mutizwa-Mangiza, Chief of the Policy Analysis, Synthesis and Dialogue Branch at the UN-HABITAT Monitoring and Research Division.
Against the growing migration from rural to urban areas, there are possible outcomes of slums, salvage yards, or ruins. So, the biggest concern of growing cities is to ensure and to upgrade the slums significantly by investing in infrastructure. Mutizwa-Mangiza suggests “Experience has shown the need for significant investment in citywide trunk infrastructure by the public sector if housing in upgraded slums is to be affordable to the urban poor and if efforts to support the informal enterprises run by poor slum dwellers are to be successful.”
Statistics reveal that the world is now more urban than rural and especially for developing countries, the going seems tough and the coming years will be an acid test for countries seeking slum development. For effective urban planning Jeffrey D Sachs, Director, Earth Institute, Columbia University suggests, “the world’s cities will have to succeed on three policy dimensions to ensure all citizens have adequate living conditions as follows:
• Urban planning by build adequate infrastructure, such as roads, houses, electricity, water and sanitation services, public transportation, schools and health clinics;
• Urban development strategy, through tailoring their goals to their circumstances of their own regions to transform slums into legitimate communities; and
• Strengthen urban governance to improve the lives of poor people and promote equity.”
If urban policymakers ensure the above conditions, the spread of urbanization will be an enormously beneficial. In fact, people in urban area are much more economically productive and they have been a wellspring of innovation for many new ideas. The process of globalization and the death of boundaries increased the returns for being smart, and even one becomes smart by associating with smart people. Therefore, cities are important forever as they create the intellectual connections that forge human capital and spur innovation. The problems like poverty, pollution, and disease, are not because of growing urbanization but lack of proper vision in planning and governing cities of policymakers.
Outlook
Across the globe, cities are struggling with huge outward migration of people and related problems. On the other hand, public authorities have once again tried to slow or halt the process but they have been failing in their effort to stop people from moving into the cities. It is difficult to predict what the next chapter history of urbanization will bring. However, there are lessons to draw from what has happened to date.
N Janardhan Rao, Senior Economist.
